THE world's top scientists have published an apocalytic vision of what we may expect if climate change is allowed to continue unchecked. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report paints a grim picture of floods, avalanches, drought, storms, fires and heat waves. The report predicts billions facing water shortages, massive migration from coastal areas as melting ice caps cause sea levels to rise and a third of the planet's most precious plants and animals wiped out. We could also kiss goodbye to some of the wonders of the world, including the Great Barrier Reef and tropical rainforests. Low-lying islands and delta regions will disappear, so too most or all of Greenland and parts of Antarctica. More than 800 scientists from 130 countries have contributed to the report. Based on substantial new data the authors say they are 80 per cent confident that human behaviour is to blame for global warming. Ice caps are already melting, rivers and lakes warming in many regions, springs are arriving earlier, prompting earlier bird migration and egg-laying. Ocean algae and plankton are moving to cooler northern waters and fish stocks are following. Worst hit will be those least responsible and least able to adapt. By 2020 it is estimated that between 75 and 250 million Africans will suffer water shortages. Agriculture will be decline as the growing season shortens and more land turns to desert. By 2050, one billion people in Asia will suffer from water shortages. The heavily populated mega-deltas in south and east Asia will face greater flood risk, bringing with it disease and loss of life. The Himalayas will be prone to flooding and avalanches. Tropical rainforests in the eastern Amazon will gradually dry out. A global average temperature rise of 1-3 degrees C will see up to 30 per cent of species at risk of extinction. Initially, northern climes might see benefits with bigger crop yields and fewer deaths from cold exposure, but these advantages will be outweighed by catastrophic effects elsewhere. By limiting climate change to within two degrees of pre-industrialised temperatures, scientists estimate that irreversible change can be averted. The report says adaptation is already happening and that we have it within our grasp to stave off or at least slow many of the impacts. Even so, the world will continue to warm up, as we feel the results of pollution from the sixties and seventies. In a final bleak warning, the authors point out that as climate change progresses it will be more expensive and difficult to reverse.
