‘We will hit the wall of collapse of society by 2074...’ – is the stark warning a Dawlish climate researcher and author has sent this week to the Prime Minister and the Government’s Chief Scientist.

Martin Heath, an independent councillor on Dawlish Town Council, made the declaration after he predicted last year that by this May, atmospheric levels of CO2 would be 50 per cent up on pre-industrial times He points out this was reached by April of this year.

Cllr Heath uses the analogy of a car hitting a wall to describe what he predicts will be the impact of global warming.

In his own words Martin Heath explains:

The United Nations climate committee wants to cap the increase in global warming to 1.5 degrees by 2100 AD. As you can see from this chart, we will hit 1.5 degrees over preindustrial times by 2047, not 2100 AD.

We will hit the wall of collapse of society by 2074, completely revealing that the UN figures have not considered recent calculation on climate change. If this proves correct, then the world is heading for eco and wildlife collapse, which humans will not escape!

The thing to note is we are looking at just a couple of decades time, not 70 or 80 years’ time.

(a) Based on the 135 ppm extra since 1830, which has equalled 1 degree hotter centigrade. We are now at 2.5ppm extra per year, multiplied by 54 years = 135ppm, therefore, that approximately equals 1degree of extra heating, by 2074AD. Not allowing for extra feed-backs, which could make it worse.

The graphic (with this article) shows a car’s stopping times as an example of the mathematical certainty that the car will hit the wall as there is insufficient distance to stop safely with given known distances.  (see highway code book)

With the same graphic design, the climate will hit the wall around 2074 AD, and possibly earlier, with an over-heated climate for civilization to carry on in a way that looks anything like liveable conditions for our world population. This will give us at least 2 to 3 degrees centigrade hotter than preindustrial. That is, some 1 to 1.5 degrees hotter than 2020 AD. (these temperatures are global averages, not highs and lows). And by 2120 AD, it will be 3 to 4 degrees hotter than 1840 AD.

I would like to expand on what I mean by ‘hitting the wall.’ We will not feel a big bump, or the sky would turn black, the wall is more like a sticky treacle wall that we will go through, but as do so, we will pick up more sticky problems that will just stop the wheels of normal life and what would be acceptable as a habitable planet for all mammals .  

If we think ‘well, we have another 54 years before the crash, I think I will be OK,’ then think again. From now on, this wall as we approach it, will get larger and larger in our sights and its effects will get stronger and stronger. We are already under the influence of the Wall!

This conclusion is based on my April 2020 modelling which has proved correct and by monitoring the Co 2 over the past year.

My prediction in April 2020 was by May 2021 the planet would reach 420 ppm of Co2. This has now happened and by April, one month earlier than predicted! This may mean it is actually speeding up, possibly by the predicted feed-backs, which could move the wall even nearer. And as stated then, that would be 50% up from preindustrial times; a new land-mark threshold from 280 ppm around 1830/1850 AD, to 420 ppm Co2 in April 2021 AD.

Just to emphasize again, we have reach 50% up on Co2 in April 2021, from preindustrial times.

It is now possible to say with a 95% chance that we will hit the wall around 2074 AD, or before whatever we do. It’s now all about slowing the crash and making it less damaging and not fatal. I might add at this point, for wildlife it is already becoming fatal. We are in a new 6th era of extinction for wildlife, which most people shockingly don’t realize.

But make no mistake, we will not be able to make much difference to the impact. This is due to the 100 year turnaround of Co2. But not just CO2 problems. (See my paper of April 20, on climate change). *

Just some reasons for living not as usual: too much extra heating; food shortages; droughts in other places; floods and storms in varied places; loss of wildlife and sea creatures; sea level rise; loss of bio-diversity; trees loss; pollution; change in ocean currants and ice. Humans clambering to get out of countries that would now be unable to sustain anything  like today’s population. This will cause mass exoduses and far more pandemics. And finally, the human population at todays fig of 7.8 + Billion, and still growing, even if it is slower than a few decades ago.

Something to think about: Each Human alone produce around 2 to 2.5 pounds of C02 every day, just by breathing, this equals some 7,780,000 tonnes (imp) of Co2,  and that’s growing every day. Plus all the animals to support us, now that’s a surprise of its own if you did not know that!

IF THE WALL IS NEARER THAN THE STOPPING TIME, THAT WILL  =  CRASH!

The only thing we can do now, is to stop whatever we are doing and prepare for this. As humans find it hard to change unless forced to do so, therefore, we are unlikely to reduce our activity fast enough to reduce the impact to make much difference to the outcome.

As David Attenborough has said in his new book, ‘we need to stop the growth and settle for maturity and be happy to survive. Continues growth by definition is not possible on a finite planet.’

PUT THE BRAKES ON NOW

The next statement may sound like the Prophets of old – today we call them SCIENTISTS!

To survive, we must prepare – PUT THE BREAKS HARD ON NOW and prepare for the consequences and all that it entails.

I would like to finish this article with an anecdote to help picture a true event that really happened:

When the Titanic liner hit the iceberg on the 15 April 2012, only a few people new just what had happened. A few passengers out on the slippery icy deck, the look-out, and soon afterwards the captain. A short time later, the designer of the ship who was on board was told. He got busy working out if they would sink. He gave the news shortly afterwards that in two hours’ time, the Titanic would be at the bottom of the ocean. The crew did not believe him at first. This is where we are at, being told, but not believing. Some did not believe even when the ship started to tilt. With humans it’s more about not wanting to believe than reality.

We are staring again at this type of scenario when action should have been a long time ago.

*Co2 in the upper atmosphere can last up to 100 years even once we and the planet stop putting it out. Please see my paper of April 20, for full details.

Paper by: Matin Heath, climate researcher and author.