BY the end of the century, tumbleweed could be bouncing across the top of Dartmoor, a climate change expert has warned. Ian Bateman, climate change officer for Devon County Council – the first such appointment in the country – made the dire prediction to Teignbridge councillors on Friday. His job is to help local government plan for the changes that climate change will bring. He told council members that by the 2020-2030s Devon's climate will be like Brittany's, with maximum temperatures on the south coast of 90 degrees F. By the middle of the century, it will be more like that of the Vendée, France. By the end of the century, it will be as hot as Portugal and north west Spain is today, with maximum temperatures of 100 degrees F. There will be dramatic changes to the landscape, with the tropics getting hotter and the deserts getting bigger. 'Will we have tumbleweeds bouncing across the top of Dartmoor?' he asked. Mr Bateman said that research carried out by the Met Office climate change unit forecast that Devon will be the epicentre of drying in the UK – up to 60 per cent drier than today. 'How are we going to provide water to all the tourists who come to Devon in the summer instead of going to Italy or Spain or Greece because the Sahara desert is there?' At first, the change in rainfall would be slight. But by the end of the century the summers will be drier with 30 per cent more rain falling in winter. He said there would not be more 'rain days' but on the days it did rain, more water would fall, increasing the danger of flash floods. In the next 100 years, sea levels are predicted to rise between eight inches and three feet. This is partly due to icecap melt but mostly because of an expansion of the oceans as they warm up. To make matters worse, while the north of Scotland is rising, the south of England is sinking. Storms will become more severe, increasing the threat of coastal flooding. Those with a one in 200 year return periods by the end of the century will have reduced to one in 20 years, while on the north Devon coast it will be as little as one in 12 years. 'Flooding in the major estuaries of Devon is a distinct possibility. With climate change it is really the extreme events we are worried about,' said mr Bateman. An average family of four pumps out 16 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year – 22 tonnes when food miles are taken into account, the equivalent of five hot air balloons. Even if carbon emissions were to cease immediately, global warming would continue because of the 30-40 year time lag between cause and effect. The oceans would be the slowest to cool down, possibly taking 2,000 years or more. 'A 95 per cent reduction in CO2 is where we have to go,' he insisted. But he rejected the notion of donning 'a hair shirt' putting his faith instead in new technologies. For this reason it was important for economies to continue to grow to provide the wherewithal to pay for the necessary research. In future, companies can expect to be taxed on their carbon emissions. Meanwhile individuals can wield their power as consumers demand that industry adopts the four rules of sustainable energy: l do less – reduce demand l use less – increased efficiency l use renewables l use clean technologies. 'It is up to us as consumers to begin to demand these things. If the demand is there industry will respond.'
